What the Future of Autonomous Vehicles Really Looks Like

Kiley Law Group, LLC

While big car manufacturers announce plans to deploy self-driving cars in the near future, smaller technology companies are already operating autonomous fleets in US cities

 

Making inroads into Boston traffic

Self-driving cars and autonomous vehicle technologies are for many, one of the most exciting advancements at the modern-day frontier of innovation. Robotic cars not only are making headlines with impressive frequency these days but also are becoming a part of actual day-to-day traffic in more and more places around the world. In addition to Google, whose driverless cars famously have completed almost 2 million miles since the project was born in 2009, Uber launched its self-driving fleet, operating in Pittsburg, PA, in August last year. That same month, nuTonomy, an MIT-spinoff startup company based in Cambridge, MA, introduced first-in-the-world autonomous taxi services to the streets of Singapore. Last January, we reported that the same company was greenlighted to start testing their autonomous vehicle system in the Flynn industrial park area in South Boston. After completing more than 200 miles of test drives, the company now feels it is ready for a bigger challenge – expanding their self-driving car operations to the city’s busier zones that include the Seaport District and Fort Point area. As the company announced on Tuesday, April 25, Boston city transportation officials conceded to the proposal meaning that Boston residents may shortly expect to see more cars with the nuTonomy logo on the streets.

The positive decision of the city officials does not come as a surprise considering the nuTonomy cars impeccable safety record in the first phase of testing. As the company’s official report explains, the vehicles completed 230 miles without any collisions or unanticipated failures. The safety drivers, who were present in the cars at all times, and prepared to take over manual control should any unexpectedly dangerous situation occur, did have to intervene in some, albeit a limited number of, situations. However, the circumstances in which such takeovers happened were related to other drivers’ erratic behaviors rather than some inherent deficiency of the vehicles’ systems.

Unique place, unique obstacles

The company also stated that the test drives allowed them to refine their software thanks to the challenges posed by real-life traffic situations that would have been difficult to anticipate otherwise. An interesting example includes the system’s reaction to seagulls. Apparently, the cars struggled to respond appropriately to seagulls that often flock the roads in South Boston in wintertime. However, software adjustments were made so that the systems could recognize the birds and adjust the behavior of the car accordingly. As nuTonomy CEO Karl Iagnemma noted, this and similar situations showed that each setting to which autonomous vehicles are introduced brings new challenges and the systems always need to be adapted to local conditions.

The next phase of the tests will certainly bring more unexpected challenges. The cars’ systems will have to face substantially heavier traffic and road features such as bridges, lights, and a rotary. Moreover, some of the routes the cars will take are located close to certain tourists attractions such as the Children’s Museum. These places are frequently visited and the resulting pedestrian traffic which is unpredictable by nature may give rise to potentially dangerous situations. However, both the city officials and the Museum’s representative are confident and optimistic about the safety of the next phase of the tests. Additionally, Iagnemma is positive that the new round of test drives “will allow the sophisticated autonomous vehicle software system we’ve pioneered to quickly adapt to Boston’s complex driving environment.”

The driverless revolution – concerns and counterarguments

Managing the above-mentioned complexity of real-life traffic as well as seemingly infinite driving scenarios is arguably one of the greatest challenges to the advance of truly autonomous vehicles. However, the obstacles do not discourage the big players of the automotive industry to continue showing interest and invest money in driverless vehicle solutions. Last year, companies such as Audi, Ford, BMW, GM, and Volkswagen announced bold plans to launch self-driving vehicles within the next five years, which makes the proliferation of the technology seem inevitable.

On the other hand, not everyone is showing unrestrained enthusiasm for the fact that this advancement is making inroads into our daily lives. Some people are concerned that autonomous vehicles may not be safe enough to entrust them with human lives – not only of their passengers but also of everyone else involved in traffic situations. Such fears were fuelled last May by a fatal accident involving a Tesla car running on the Autopilot mode. However, a formal investigation into the accident conducted by the US National Transportation Safety Board, NTSB, concluded that the car’s system was not at fault but rather it was the driver’s abuse of Autopilot mode that ultimately led to the collision. Moreover, the report stated that after Tesla cars were updated with the Autopilot Technology, the crash rate dropped by almost 40 percent.

This report has not been the only source which suggests that the assertion that autonomous vehicles are unsafe is based more on misconceptions than facts. Actually, the data available on the use and impact of the already existing AI-assisted driving technologies predict that self-driving cars would make the roads safer. It has been reported, for example, that if solutions such as forward collision warning, lane departure warning, and blind-spot monitoring were universally employed in the US, the number of fatal crashes would drop by 10,000.

Nevertheless, the rise in popularity of autonomous vehicles will have a notable impact on society as a whole and is likely to create some social and legal issues. As The Economist magazine suggested last year, one of the issues raised is the question of liability. In rare cases where a car’s AI will commit an error leading to a car crash, it will most likely be the manufacturer held liable. The manufacturer, however, may try to prove that the blame lies with a component supplier and so on, which may result in prolonged and inconclusive lawsuits. On the other hand, the article mentions that, because of the overall decrease of accidents, the motor insurance market is predicted to become 60% smaller by 2040. Those insurance companies who want to survive the drastic change of the automotive industry will need to adapt to the new circumstances and adopt new business models that these inevitable changes will require.

According to many, self-driving cars have the potential to be an innovation that will revolutionize transportation across the globe and will potentially impact many other industries. Some of the ramifications of the advancement of this technology are hard to predict. Therefore, pilot programs, such as the one being conducted in Boston by nuTonomy, are vital to anticipate and minimize any negative effect that a widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles may cause in the years to come.

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